Found around the city

Bubble

I'm living in a bubble. I've been told that I'm probably living in a bubble many, many times before - see the Red Tribe. And I've acknowledged on an intellectual level that this was almost certainly true. But it never sunk in before now.

Now, I read this: You are still crying wolf. It points out that an omnipresent running narrative about Trump, namely that he is racist, is manifestly false. This is not simply the "Let's be charitable, he might not be so bad" spirit - I think this is just what it feels like to slowly pull out of a media bubble that I've been caught in for months. He's against immigration, but it really seems like that is all he is - against immigration. When I go back and read his quotes, and then I remember what I felt about those self-same quotes when I heard them reported initially, the feeling is completely different. It was reported as "Trump says Mexico is sending illegal immigrant rapists to America" What Trump actually said is that Mexico's best people are staying in Mexico, and that some of the illegal immigrants are criminals and rapists. This is probably true. I disagree with the sentiment, but the facts are true - or at least they were before a selective reading of Trump's statement was presented.

I'd like to break down what I heard about the election into four categories:

Anti-Trump falsehoods:

Trump is a racist.
Trump's supporters are overwhelmingly white.
Trump uses "law and order candidate" as a code word for racist, just like George Wallace.

Anti-Trump truths:

Trump is very thin skinned.
Trump is very egotistical
Trump doesn't care about global warming
Trump doesn't care about upholding foreign policy treaties.
Clinton has much more experience and is more predictable.
Pro-Trump/Anti-Clinton truths:

Clinton broke the military secrecy laws with her email server.
Trump wants to crack down on government corruption.
Trump wants to pull out of the TPP.
Trump is more likely to break the "traditional politician" promise vague stuff and then don't do it pattern.

Anti-Clinton falsehoods:

Clinton did something very illegal with regards to Benghazi, then covered it up.

Steps towards realizing I was in this bubble: I noticed that other groups, including news sources that I don't follow, were pushing the Clinton is a criminal line. I realized that people who like Trump probably like him much more for the Sanders-type "I'm not a typical politician; I'm someone who actually cares about you and is going to shake things up", or for traditional republican stuff, or for anti-trade deals, or for whatever. I noticed the strong contrast between this and what most of the media I listened to were describing as the reasons people liked Trump.

I noticed the fact that media people were forever comparing Trump to George Wallace, despite the fact that the phrasing (law and order) was pretty common, and that was 60 years ago.

I noticed that I was saying "Well sure, Clinton has some minor things wrong with her, but I mostly like her, and all the things that the other side says are majorly wrong about her are false, and look at all of the major and minor things that are false", and that a Trump supporter could easily say the identical things about Trump. What I didn't realize is that all of the "Major things wrong" were hyperbole and falsehood, and I needed to seek what was actually going on.

People making fun of how Trump speaks. Hidden messages, read into over and over and over again. Commentators who were supposedly data-driven actually being overwhelming biased. The warning signs were all there.

I fell off the track of epistemic virtue. I allowed myself to naively consume the messages that were being thrown at me, rather than actively seeking the truth, and making my own decisions based on that knowledge.

To help remedy this, I took at Trump's plan for his first 100 days in office. Nowhere to been seen were the most dire and outlandish stories, like racism, homophobia, etc. Instead, I saw concrete parts of Trump's actual policies, like a very naive approach to government reform (complete freeze on government hiring), backwards steps on climate change, etc. I saw the real Trump for the first time, who I actually dislike, not the fake Trump that was being thrown at me.

I looked at Clinton, as she presents herself, and found that I actually like her. She's not just some vague generalities and air, she has actual good ideas (or her staff does, which is close enough).

I need to rededicate myself to the path of epistemic virtue - trying to find the truth, not just the story.

On the path: slatestarcodex, Dan Carlin's Common Sense, actually talking to people (Grandpa, Kevin, etc.), especially those with different opinions. Primary sources. Super duper primary sources.

Against the path: All of the traditional media - NYTimes on down. 538, when they're not talking about polls/the model. Talking too much to people with the same opinions as me.

Now I know. When you see people being wrong, consider that you might be wrong too.

Sleep

I tried to have it all. To go to my classes, to do my homework and research, to be president, to socialize for long hours, and to have plenty of time to myself.

Then something broke. I overslept and missed the first half-hour of the first class. Bad, but not that bad in an absolute sense. The much, much bigger problem is that I've been feeling tired for many, many days. It's been degrading my experiences to be less enjoyable than they would have been otherwise. My behavior is massively sub-optimal. By refusing to make the choice to sacrifice any of my activities, I made them all worse and myself unhappier in the process.

So I must now choose. I choose the following prioritization:

0. Sleep (necessary for the rest)
1. Classes
2. Homework and research and president
3. Socialization
4. Time to myself

However, it is reasonable, depending on the day, to switch Socialization out for Time to myself, depending on my desires that day. What is not allowed is to budge is classes and work, or sleep, since losing sleep makes everything worse.

To ensure that I do not lose sleep, I will set a target, with a list of surrounding behaviors. My target is to go to bed 8.5 hours before my first event of the next day, and to go to sleep at the same time each day. The only exception allowed to this system is if I have an event, involving other people, that stretches past the above mentioned time. If so, I will go to sleep as soon as possible after getting back. Thus:

My goal:

Sleep by 1:00 am, or just after getting back.

Surrounding behaviors:

2 hours before sleep time:

• No food

At sleep time:

• In bed
• Lights out
• Clothes off
• No books
• No electronics
• No music

It doesn't matter if you're tired or not. Just close your eyes and lie in bed for as long as you have to.

This will be recorded on zscore. Let's see how I do.

Sometimes wishes do come true

There was something I wanted. So I asked for it. I knew someone who could give it to me, it wouldn't cost them much at all.

In May I asked in person. Yes, they said, yes I could have it.

Nothing.

Six days later, I asked again. Nothing.

Well, I didn't need it until September, so that's OK.

In July, I asked again. Politely, but firmly. Nothing.

In August, I talked to them about something else, so I knew they were in touch.

So I asked again. Politely. Firmly.

Nothing.

Time was running out. If I didn't get it from them, I didn't know what I was going to do.

So I asked again. Urgently. Just a little desperately.



Yes. Yes, I'd be happy to help you. Here's the thing you need.

Important Externally-Facing Actions

I have a lot of trouble doing something which most other people seem to find basic. For all of the problems I've run into in this category, they are not particularly difficult actions, but I had a strong aversion towards doing them, and it took a great deal of willpower for me to get over that hurdle. Here are some examples of things in that category:

• Changing my voter registration
• Talking to my school about my tuition payment
• Setting up a dinner appointment that I wanted to bring about
• Talking to my bank about where my new debit card should be sent
• Talking to a professor about papers and a research project
• Buying bus tickets and coordinating a travel schedule.

This cluster shares several defining characteristics: They are all relatively important, and they mostly involve other people, and mostly people or groups that I am unfamiliar with. I believe these characteristics are what make it hard for me to do what I need to do.

Notably, it's not the difficulty of the decisions or actions needed that a struggle with, particularly. Once I do manage to get myself to do the thing that needs doing, I tend to do it just fine. My problem is in getting myself to do the thing in the first place.

This is, of course, not a rational reluctance. It's merely an instance of my System 1 exerting far too much sway on my decision making. However, the fact that I have a System 1 reluctance to do these things is not particularly surprising or informative. There are many, many things I do every day that I nevertheless have a System 1 aversion towards doing. However, with more routine matters that I have faced in the past, I think I've trained myself to use System 2 and overcome my irrational impulses relatively easily. The surprising thing is that my System 2 doesn't take control easily or reliably.

In these cases, there are factors pushing me away from making the sensible choice: Needing to interact with another person or entity increases the length of the interaction necessary to complete the task, thereby increasing the opportunity for my natural reluctance to overwhelm my initial motivation to perform the task. However, this is only relevant in some of the interactions, maybe three of the six above, while in other cases I never get off the ground in the first place.

That process is combined with the weight of the decision or action to be made, which plays on my natural procrastination tendencies, where I tend to avoid doing important things, because at a System 1 level, I'm probably thinking that if I don't deal with it, I can't do it wrong. I think this might be because I reward myself insufficiently for dealing with important matters successfully, so I only remember the stress beforehand and the rare failings.

Finally, there's the fact that I've been avoiding the area for many years, leaving it for others to deal with on my behalf or actively deciding not to do certain things so I wouldn't have to do anything in the painful cluster. 

But now, I'm growing up, and I can't avoid these things any longer. I'm hoping that with the realization of the issue I face with regards to this mental blockage have, I'll be able to set my mind towards overcoming it, and thereby actually succeed. Also, I'll try to be better about rewarding myself for doing things I find hard.